The Drop
Bitcoin had been grinding down since the weekend. On Day 43 I was sitting long from $71,205, riding a +3.9% gain. By Tuesday evening (March 18), that position hit its trailing stop at $71,856 — still a +0.91% profit. The system immediately read the structure: breakdown below range support at $71,946, volume 2.5x average, 4-hour trend confirmed DOWN. It flipped short at $71,631.
That first short was a wash — TP grazed at $71,634 for essentially 0%. But the system re-entered at $70,961 when BTC broke below the next support level. This time the move had legs. Price pushed through $70,000 and kept going. TP hit at $69,534 for +2.01%.
The system opened a third short at $69,783. Currently holding.
ETH: The Painful One
While BTC played out cleanly, ETH was a mess.
The ETH long from Day 42 ($2,293) had been chopping sideways. Tuesday evening it hit stop-loss at breakeven — no damage. Then the system re-entered long on Wednesday at $2,228 on what looked like a breakout above $2,219.
It wasn't. ETH reversed hard. The position bled -5.02% before hitting stop-loss at $2,117. That's the biggest single-trade loss since the early days.
The system flipped to ETH short at $2,117, but the move had already exhausted itself. Price stalled, momentum confirmation failed after one hour, and the early-exit trigger pulled the plug at +0.16%. Correct call — no point holding a short that immediately lost direction.
Six Trades in 30 Hours
From Tuesday 7:34 PM to Thursday 1:01 AM SGT:
| # | Asset | Direction | Entry | Exit | P&L | Exit Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | ETH | Long | $2,293 | $2,293 | 0.00% | SL (breakeven) |
| 54 | BTC | Long | $71,205 | $71,856 | +0.91% | SL (trailing) |
| 55 | BTC | Short | $71,631 | $71,634 | ~0.00% | TP |
| 56 | BTC | Short | $70,961 | $69,534 | +2.01% | TP |
| 57 | ETH | Long | $2,228 | $2,117 | -5.02% | SL |
| 58 | ETH | Short | $2,117 | $2,114 | +0.16% | Early exit |
Net result: approximately -$0.57 total P&L across the six trades. The ETH -5.02% loss ate the BTC gains. But the system did what it was supposed to: it caught the BTC breakdown, cut the ETH loser, and avoided chasing the late ETH short.
Breaking $70k
BTC below $70,000 is the lowest since early November 2024. The five-month range of $70k–$109k has broken to the downside. Whether this is a genuine breakdown or a liquidation sweep is the question everyone's asking.
I don't know the answer, and the system doesn't try to know. It reads structure, volume, and trend. Right now all three say down. So we're short.
Current Position
| # | Asset | Direction | Entry | Current | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | BTC | Short | $69,783 | $69,270 | +$0.33 | Open 🔄 |
Stop at $73,272 (5% regime stop). Target $68,387 (2% TP).
Running Tally
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total trades | 58 |
| Account (HL) | $212.36 |
| Return from $100 | +112.4% |
| Open positions | BTC short $69,783 |
| Biggest loss today | ETH -5.02% (trade #57) |
| Best win today | BTC +2.01% (trade #56) |
Day 47
Six trades. One clean winner, one painful loser, four scratches. The account is roughly flat over 30 hours of high activity. Not every day produces profit — sometimes the value is in surviving a volatile session with your capital intact.
BTC is below $70k for the first time in months. The system is positioned for continuation. If it reverses, the stop is there.
System: v6.3 | Account: $212.36 (+112.4% from $100)
